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A record 18 million Australians are registered to vote in Saturday's national election. And for the first time, younger voters, as in millennials and Gen Zers, will overtake baby boomers to form the dominant voting bloc. Kristina Kukolja looks at how their participation could shape the outcome.
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PRIME MINISTER ANTHONY ALBANESE: Hey, TikTok, thought I'd hop on here to let you know the big news we're announcing today.
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PETER DUTTON: I know my first TikTok is supposed to be something fun, and I probably should say something that is or isn't demure.
KRISTINA KUKOLJA, BYLINE: Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of the center left Labor Party and the conservative opposition coalition leader Peter Dutton campaigning on social media, a key election battleground this year for the country's two major political parties. To win votes, they're turning to influencers, memes and popular podcasts, like this one hosted by Abbie Chatfield, a former reality TV star.
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ABBIE CHATFIELD: So I'd love to know, what is the difference in policies, just some examples, between the coalition and Labor?
KUKOLJA: But those who've studied Australian elections say they're playing to a demographic with a very different political outlook. Nearly half of the 18 million eligible voters in this year's election are under the age of 45.
TOMISLAV KRIVACEVIC: I simply want to take the power away from the biggest parties, if possible, and hand it to a smaller party, if possible.
KUKOLJA: First-time voter, 19-year-old Melbourne-based university student Tomislav Krivacevic (ph) says he's disenchanted with current Australian politics.
KRIVACEVIC: You always remember the worst things that you see about politicians. So you have this general mantra that they're maybe not following your best interests.
KUKOLJA: Analysts NPR has spoken to warn young voters are looking to alternative political parties, the greens and independent candidates, which could deny an outright majority in parliament to either Labor or the conservative bloc.
KOS SAMARAS: These generations that we're talking about, Gen Z and Millennials, are going to behave at this election in a very different way than I would say older Australians have in the past.
KUKOLJA: That's Kos Samaras, the director of the Red Bridge Group, an election research agency.
SAMARAS: They are less inclined to support established institutions. They are a lot more inclined to be attracted to antiestablishment movements. They've got little faith in the major parties coming up with solutions with regards to the challenges they're facing as a generation, particularly around housing, and so they're effectively the drivers.
KUKOLJA: And what they care about, polling suggests, includes climate change, employment and health care. Kos Samaras says, more than ever before, young Australian voters are also worried about the global impact of U.S. policies.
SAMARAS: They are concerned about the state of the global economy. They've just endured a pandemic. They are living through an inflationary crisis, and now they think that the world economy is going to get a lot worse, and they will be the ones who wear the cost of that.
KUKOLJA: Research by the Red Bridge Group shows the conservative opposition coalition has lost ground among millennial and Gen Z voters, reflecting a trend of them turning away from center-right parties. And days out from the vote, the incumbent Labor government is ahead in the polls and leads with young voters, too. Duncan McDonnell is a professor of politics at Griffith University and coauthor of a study into Gen Z voting behavior. He says political messaging to young Australians may not be hitting the mark.
DUNCAN MCDONNELL: We know that a lot of young voters in this country make up their mind the day of the election. But the simple fact is that we found that almost half of them go to vote because they're afraid of being fined. It's compulsory voting that we have in Australia that is getting them to the ballot box.
KUKOLJA: However they vote in Saturday's election, young Australian voters are starting to change the country's political landscape.
For NPR News, I'm Kristina Kukolja in Melbourne.
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