SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
And we're going to turn now to Ali Vaez, who is the Iran project director with the International Crisis Group. Thank you so much for being with us, sir.
ALI VAEZ: My pleasure.
SIMON: What's your reaction to all the news we're covering today?
VAEZ: Look, my sense is that the U.S.-Israeli idea that bombing in Iran will somehow trigger a popular uprising could prove to be little more than wishful thinking. Of course, bombs can degrade infrastructure and can weaken capabilities and eliminate leaders, but they usually do not manufacture organized political alternatives. I think one has to remember that Iranian public is unarmed, fragmented and facing one of the most securitized states in the region. So even a weakened Islamic republic would still retain coercive institutions - the Revolutionary Guard, the intelligence agencies, the security forces - that are built precisely for moments like this to endure.
SIMON: President Trump spoke directly to the Iranian people in his video this morning. Let's play a little.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: Stay sheltered. Don't leave your home. It's very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.
SIMON: And at the same time, we're told Iranian media is posting images of burning buildings and dead children on social media, saying this is how America is protecting the people of Iran. What's your assessment of how these messages are being received or will be received in Iran?
VAEZ: Look, we saw this in the 12-day war last year that Israel launched and the U.S. joined briefly, that given how unpopular and detested this regime is, there was some initial happiness within the population that their tormentors were being targeted. But then when the casualty numbers started going up, the public opinion turned against the war.
SIMON: What are some of your concerns about consequences in the region, as this - as these attacks might stretch out for the next days or weeks?
VAEZ: Well, we've already seen Iran targeting its neighbors - U.S. bases in the Gulf region and Israel. So this war has already turned into a regional conflagration, and if it continues further, it really risks destabilizing the region. And even if the U.S. gets what it wants, which is dismantling the U.S. - the Iranian state, given the fact that there is no viable, organized alternative inside the country that can take over if this regime collapses, you risk turning a country of 92 million into a failed state, which would descend into civil strife and create the kind of instability, radicalization and refugee waves that would adversely affect the region and beyond.
SIMON: Iran has been retaliating. We've seen strikes on U.S. military bases in the Gulf. What other military options might the regime have?
VAEZ: So look, the Iranians over the years had developed capabilities precisely for a day like this, precisely to target U.S. naval assets and bases in the region. Their objective would be to survive and endure and continue to retaliate. They want to spill American blood in order to put pressure on President Trump domestically. They want to scare global markets and put pressure on energy exports out of that region in order to create an inflationary impact in the United States that would then push President Trump to back off. Those are some of its options, but again, at the end of the day, this is a game of endurance, and the most important question is, who's going to blink first and take a step back?
SIMON: I'm struck by the fact that just yesterday, a key mediator who'd been working on the nuclear talks with the U.S. and Iran said, quote, that "a peace deal is within our reach." Why do you think that didn't happen?
VAEZ: Well, the Omanis tried very hard to create common ground between Iran and the U.S. If President Trump wanted a fair deal, a deal in which he could make sure that Iran would not be able to acquire nuclear weapons, that deal was within reach. The foreign minister of Oman is right. But if President Trump was seeking maximalism, in terms of his objectives and also Iranian capitulation, clearly, that was never on the cards. And this is why he has opted for a military option, burning the Omanis for a second time because it was also last year that in the middle of negotiations, President Trump decided to pull the plug and go for a military option.
SIMON: And in the time we have left, what do you see happening if the Iranian government begins to fall apart?
VAEZ: Well, I'm afraid it would more likely look like Libya, in which you would see the country descend into civil strife because, as I said, there is no organized opposition inside the country that could take over, or potentially you might end up with a military dictatorship in Iran.
SIMON: Ali Vaez is with the International Crisis Group. Thank you so much for being with us today, sir.
VAEZ: My pleasure.
(SOUNDBITE OF ALEX MOUKALA II'S "BENEATH THE MASK [LOFI HIP HOP REMIX]") Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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