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How does diplomacy work during a military deadlock?

EMILY FENG, HOST:

The war with Iran has been stuck in a deadlock. Despite a back-and-forth of peace plans, there is no permanent ceasefire. Iranian negotiators submitted a 14-point response last week to a previous U.S. proposal to end the conflict, and Iranian state media says the U.S. has responded to that. And on Sunday, President Trump said on Truth Social that the U.S. was having, quote, "very positive negotiations with Iran."

But the president has oscillated between comments like that one and threats to resume the American bombing campaign if he does not get a deal. So how do leaders try to negotiate with countries they're in conflict with? Suzanne DiMaggio is an expert on that issue. She's a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where she's conducted unofficial negotiations with countries that have no diplomatic relations with the United States, including with Iran. Welcome.

SUZANNE DIMAGGIO: Glad to be with you. Thanks for having me.

FENG: Both the U.S. and Iran have indicated they think they're winning this conflict. How would you characterize the current state of peace talks with Iran?

DIMAGGIO: Well, I would say right now we are in a stalemate, but the Iranians have now put forward a new proposal, which I think seems like a new opening. They had been insisting that the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz was a precondition for any return to talks. But in this latest proposal, they appear to have dropped this precondition. And now they are instead proposing a 30-day period to negotiate a permanent end to the war, and I think that's what's important. They just don't want a temporary ceasefire. They want a permanent end. I think what it boils down to is this - the Iranians want a real negotiation with the understanding that both sides will have to make concessions. In other words, the unconditional surrender that President Trump has been seeking is not likely to happen anytime soon.

FENG: This sounds like progress, then.

DIMAGGIO: I think it could be progress as long as the U.S. sees it that way. If they hold on to President Trump's wish for some magical thinking that the Iranians are going to come to the table and concede on everything, that's just not going to happen.

FENG: Where does the U.S. then go from here?

DIMAGGIO: I think there's a potential way forward here, and that would be for the U.S. to announce the end of the blockade. And the Iranians, in turn, or perhaps simultaneously, if that could be negotiated, would declare the strait as open and commit to the negotiating process.

FENG: As you mentioned, there's no direct talks between U.S. and Iranian negotiators, so going through diplomats from Pakistan, Oman, in some cases. In the past, is there any way you can talk about perhaps some of the creative ways you've employed to get the two countries - the U.S. and Iran - talking, even though they cannot have face-to-face conversations?

DIMAGGIO: It's a very good question. One way that I would recommend is what I would call secret talks about talks. And these days, it's very hard to do anything in secret, but I think it can be done. Before the JCPOA was reached...

FENG: This was a nuclear agreement between the U.S. and Iran.

DIMAGGIO: That's right. There were a series of secret talks that were convened mainly in Oman. And this was an opportunity for the Iranians and Americans to get together quietly, without the glare of cameras, without that pressure to talk about what would be an acceptable set of parameters for the talks, and what are the expected outcomes, also to clarify intentions. And I think that went a long way towards establishing some degree of trust, but also a very realistic roadmap for getting there. That's missing at the moment. So that would be my suggestion. The Trump administration engaged in something similar with the North Koreans that I was also involved in. So this is a tried-and-true method to really get to direct discussions with an adversary.

FENG: There have been proposals for U.S. and Iranian officials to meet in Islamabad in Pakistan, but those have been called off. Was that a mistake?

DIMAGGIO: I don't necessarily think that was a mistake because, if you remember, the context of that was quite actually weird. President Trump called for the talks, said they were going to happen. But in actuality, the Iranians never agreed to it. And I think one of the reasons is a high degree of distrust. The Iranians want to have a framework in place first and then meet using that framework as the basis for negotiations. So they want to proceed on an action-for-action basis to build confidence. And this is due to the distrust resulting from the surprise attacks in June 2025 and then in February 2026, which occurred while diplomatic talks were underway. So the Iranians are very wary. They don't want to walk into that trap again.

FENG: Suzanne DiMaggio - she's a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Thank you.

DIMAGGIO: It's my pleasure. Thanks. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

Henry Larson
Emily Feng is NPR's Beijing correspondent.