AILSA CHANG, HOST:
The war in Iran, and specifically its impact on the passage of oil tankers, is driving up the cost of gas, and that is increasing the economic pain felt all around the world. A new poll from NPR, PBS News and Marist shows that 81% of Americans say gas prices are a strain on their household budgets. And a majority say that the economy is not working well for them personally. Well, here to talk about the politics of these findings is NPR's senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro. Hi, Domenico.
DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Hey. Great to be with you, Ailsa.
CHANG: Great to have you. OK, so we already know gas prices are a problem for so many people right now. So what more did we learn about that from this poll?
MONTANARO: Yeah, gas prices are hitting pretty much everyone. I mean, unlike most other things, there's relatively no partisan divide here on this. Four out of 5 Republicans say gas prices are hurting their budgets too. Politically, it's having consequences for President Trump because 63% say those price increases are his fault, given the Iran War, and that includes about a third of Republicans.
CHANG: Wow, 63%. Presumably, some people are feeling that squeeze more than others, though, right?
MONTANARO: Very true. The cost of living is a huge concern for people. Sixty-one percent say the area where they live just isn't affordable for the average family. Sixty-three percent say the economy is not working well for them personally, and that's the worst score we've seen in the poll on that question. The groups who say they're most affected - white women without college degrees, those making less than $50,000 a year and millennials. And by the way, all of those groups back in February of 2025, just after President Trump was inaugurated for the second term, had given him a positive job approval rating. Today, that's flipped and more disapprove than approve in each of those groups.
CHANG: Interesting. Does anyone say the economy is working well for them?
MONTANARO: Yeah. I mean, there's clearly, you know, two economies where wealthier individuals can absorb more, and it affects them less. And politics come into play here too. Republicans seem more willing or able to absorb some of these affordability issues. Six in 10 Republicans, for example, say the economy is working well for them and that their area is affordable. Overall, there still appears to be, I have to say, a COVID economic hangover because pre-COVID, in February of 2020, we polled on this and two-thirds said the economy was working well for them back then. That's just not the case anymore as prices caused by supply chain issues just haven't recovered.
CHANG: OK, well, then what does all of this mean politically for President Trump and for other Republicans?
MONTANARO: Well, I mean, Trump's economic approval rating is only 35%. That's tied for the worst mark in either of his presidential terms. In his first term, he was never below 47%, for context, on the economy, even when he was at his most unpopular points. And his overall approval in this poll is just 37%, with 59% disapproving. Of that, half say they strongly disapprove, and that shows the intensity of opposition that Trump and Republicans are facing here in these midterms.
CHANG: OK, so I imagine all of this is good news for Democrats.
MONTANARO: I mean, so far, yes. Our poll finds Democrats with a 10-point advantage on the congressional ballot test. That's when we ask who people would vote for if the congressional elections were held today in their district. Fifty-two percent say a Democrat. Forty-two percent say a Republican. Democrats also have the advantage on enthusiasm. Sixty-one percent say that they're enthusiastic - very enthusiastic - to vote in these midterms. Just 47% of those who voted for Trump in 2024 say the same. In most years, those would be the kinds of things indicative of a pretty big election wave. That could be. It's why the Senate, for example, looks within reach for Democrats, even if it is still a reach. I mean, we'll see what happens. Nothing is guaranteed, and there are some very big caveats here because a lot of the groups who Democrats need to vote for them, like voters 18 to 29, Black voters and Latinos, just...
CHANG: Yeah.
MONTANARO: ...Aren't that fired up.
CHANG: That is NPR's Domenico Montanaro. Thank you, Domenico.
MONTANARO: You got it. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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