ELISSA NADWORNY, HOST:
Russia's war on Ukraine has lasted more than four years, and it may have reached a turning point. In Russia, there are signs of growing public fatigue with the military campaign, and Ukraine is using robotic warfare to stay ahead of the fight. The peace process has stalled, as the Trump administration is distracted by its war on Iran. For more, we are joined by NPR's Charles Maynes in Moscow and NPR's Joanna Kakissis in Kyiv. Hello to you both.
JOANNA KAKISSIS, BYLINE: Hello, Elissa.
CHARLES MAYNES, BYLINE: Hello.
NADWORNY: OK. So, Charles, let's start with you. Last weekend, Russia held its annual parade marking the Soviet Union's contribution to the defeat of Nazi Germany, but it was much different than previous years. How have Russians responded to this?
MAYNES: You know, yeah. I mean, for the first time in nearly 20 years, the Victory Day Parade featured no tanks, no missiles, no nuclear launchers rumbling across Red Square. Guests were few. The media was restricted, including NPR, by the way. The actual ceremony itself was a swift 45 minutes and out. And all of this was a reflection of the Kremlins' concerns over potential Ukrainian drone strikes interrupting the ceremony, which in the end was unnecessary. Moscow and Kyiv agreed to a last-minute three-day ceasefire negotiated by President Trump.
But somehow the Kremlin came out looking diminished from all of this, in part because the parade celebrates a victory over Nazi Germany that its forces haven't been able to replicate in Ukraine, but also because Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy released a presidential decree allowing Putin to hold his scaled-back parade with a promise not to attack. It was obviously a bit of online trolling, and it really seemed to work. You know, nationalists here just lost their minds over it.
NADWORNY: OK. So that's kind of cheeky of Zelenskyy. I mean, let's bring in Joanna. What's behind the swagger?
KAKISSIS: Well, Elissa, the Ukrainians have to some extent flipped the script in this war. I mean, critics have long portrayed Ukraine as constantly begging for military aid, but in the last year especially, the Ukrainians have developed very effective weapons for robotic warfare. We spoke to one soldier, Alisher (ph). He's from the 93rd Brigade, and he works with a unit that operates drones on land. Now, these ground drones carry supplies and ammunition to the front line. They evacuate the wounded. They even perform assaults on Russian soldiers.
ALISHER: (Non-English language spoken).
KAKISSIS: And he's saying, look, we have, like, 30 million Ukrainians, and there are 130 million Russians, we cannot resist them all, so we had to invent something new to survive, without these innovations, you know, we wouldn't last long.
NADWORNY: OK. So he's talking about ground drones, but the Ukrainians also use drones in the sky and in the sea. How have these drones helped?
KAKISSIS: So let's focus on aerial drones. Like, you know, Ukraine uses these to hit Russian oil refineries and depots - long-range drones. And they also use these cheap interceptor drones that - they look like toy rockets, but they destroy far bigger and more expensive Iranian-designed Shahed drones that Russia uses to attack Ukrainian cities.
Now, Middle Eastern countries have signed defense deals with Ukraine because of these interceptor drones due to the war in Iran. Ukraine can shoot down nearly all attack drones, but it only shoots down about 75% of missiles. And when missiles get through, you know, Elissa, they are incredibly destructive. More 20 people died in Kyiv on Thursday after a Russian missile crushed this apartment building.
And right now, I'm actually looking at a photo of one of the dead. She's a sixth-grader named Liubava Yakovlieva. She's got red hair, this toothy grin, this bright blue headband. And, you know, her sister was also killed in this massive strike, and their father - a soldier - was killed in action three years ago.
NADWORNY: Charles, let's shift now to the diplomatic front. President Trump famously promised to end this war in a day. Obviously, that has not happened. His administration has certainly spent months trying to find a negotiated settlement. Where do things stand now?
MAYNES: You know, I think, by and large, there's a sense that the peace process has stalled, with the White House preoccupied by the war in Iran, even if Trump hasn't disengaged entirely - for example, that recent ceasefire. But the talks, you know, they seem as stuck as the battlefield picture. Russia's position hasn't changed much. It says the fighting would end if Ukraine would voluntarily cede the Donbas. This is land Russia hasn't been able to conquer entirely in more than four years of fighting. But Ukraine won't go for it. That territory is Ukraine's primary line of defense to further Russian incursions. And meanwhile, Russia still insists a lasting settlement address what it calls the root causes of the conflict. That being in Kremlin eyes NATO's expansion, the ouster of what it claims are fascists in Ukraine's government and the country's demilitarization.
NADWORNY: But Trump was recently saying he thinks they're getting, quote, "very close to a deal," no?
MAYNES: Yeah. You know, Trump seems eternally optimistic he can bring about an end to this war. And the Kremlin has certainly done its part to tempt him towards Moscow's side, offering all sorts of business investments in Russia once sanctions end, for example. But hopes here in Moscow have really faded that Trump could force Ukraine into a peace deal it doesn't like.
KAKISSIS: And, Elissa, I should chime in here and say that, you know, Ukraine was never going to agree to any peace deal without ironclad security guarantees from the U.S., which Trump has not delivered.
NADWORNY: OK. So, Charles, we're in Year 5 of this war. Do you see an end in sight?
MAYNES: Well, there's a sense here that Russians are tired of this. The war's brought enormous casualties and suffering. The economy's on shaky ground now. Repressions and restrictions seem only to be expanding. The most recent example are these rolling internet blackouts that have really brought digital life and all that comes with it - you know, banking, taxis, communication - all of that's to a halt. And all of this is damaging Putin's polling numbers, which creates the feeling that the country is somehow adrift.
NADWORNY: OK. And, Joanna, I mean, what's the view from Ukraine?
KAKISSIS: Well, Elissa, it seems that Zelenskyy seems to end every single one of his speeches by saying, look, you know, Ukraine wants peace, and, you know, he's been frustrated that peace negotiations have stalled. And, see, he seems to have lost faith in the Trump administration. Now, like all Ukrainians, Zelenskyy is clearly very exhausted by this war - you can see it on his face. But he also seems to realize that his country finally has its own cards to play and will keep pushing for peace that will preserve the country's independence and integrity on its own terms.
NADWORNY: That's Joanna Kakissis in Kyiv and Charles Maynes in Moscow. Thanks for speaking with us today.
KAKISSIS: You're welcome, Elissa.
MAYNES: Thank you.
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