AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
As we mentioned just a few minutes ago, details of any kind of agreement between the U.S. and Iran remain vague. Over three months after the start of the war, there's a lot of daylight between what the U.S. wants and what Iran seems willing to negotiate. And we should note that back in April, President Trump claimed that Iran had agreed to all U.S. demands. We're joined now by Ariane Tabatabai. She's the vice president of research for security and defense at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. She also served in the State and Defense Departments during the Biden administration. Welcome to the program.
ARIANE TABATABAI: Thanks for having me, Ayesha.
RASCOE: So President Trump didn't offer any detail in his Truth Social post, but Iran was quick to say that the deal, which they describe as more of a framework for an actual negotiations, would not include its nuclear program. You were part of President Biden's team handling nuclear negotiations with Iran. What do you make of what we know so far about this agreement?
TABATABAI: Yeah. So I think as, you know, we've heard from Mara this morning, you know, we have the contours of what an agreement might look like. We don't have the confirmed specifics of what are in the draft that is presumably being negotiated. And in any type of negotiation, but especially when it comes to nuclear negotiations that are so technical and where the devil is really in the details, we have to wait until we have the specifics of what is in the deal to know what it's going to look like, whether it's actually even achievable. And finally, if it is reached, if it can actually be sustainable over the longer term.
RASCOE: But does the fact that this agreement - whatever it is, if what Iran is saying is correct, does not include the nuclear program - should we read anything into that?
TABATABAI: Absolutely. I mean, the nuclear program is, in some ways, the hardest piece here. Again, it is the most technical. It took the Obama administration years to get a nuclear deal, and it included, you know, so many folks on the U.S. government side - allies, partners. A lot of back and forth. And so the fact that this is getting kicked down the road is really, to me, troubling because we don't know that we'll actually get there, even if there is a ceasefire now and everything else gets resolved, which is also a big if. But it also tells us that, you know, the president had talked about the nuclear program as being one of the key objectives of this war. And if we're not going to get a deal on it, it just tells us that maybe it wasn't actually that important to begin with.
So, you know, I think there is a lot that we need to see unfold over the next few days and weeks. Again, narratives are kind of a big part of the - this phase of negotiations. Both sides want to make sure that, you know, they're advancing their own narrative, strengthening their own hands. And so what we're seeing play out publicly is really a small piece of it. But if we indeed end up with some sort of - does not include the nuclear program, I don't know that we're going to see this last beyond a few months.
RASCOE: Well, Iran's semi-official Fars News Agency reports that Iran has not committed to not building a nuclear bomb. They've said all along that their program is civilian, but is this war making the Iranian regime dig in on this point or rethink the nature of that program?
TABATABAI: Yeah. This is actually one of my worries, is that, you know, at the end of the day, if the president and his team manage to end this war today, in some ways, we go back to the status quo ante before the war. But it also means that there is no major achievements when it comes to the key areas of concern with Iran, and one of those - and chief among them - is Iran's nuclear program. The war is actually leaving an Iranian regime - that is, in many ways, more radical than it was before the war just a few months ago - that, in my mind, is going to be much more inclined to pursue a nuclear weapon because it's seen its deterrence posture fail. And we are worse off because we now have more tensions with our allies and partners, although not just because of the war. We are - as you know, we were - you were just talking about it with Mara - economically worse off than we were a few months ago. And the U.S. military is now going to have to do a lot of work to rebuild itself and its capabilities after this conflict.
RASCOE: Fars also reported that the release of, quote, "all or part of" Iran's frozen assets in order to enter negotiations, as well as the lifting of some energy sector sanctions, at least temporarily. If that turns out to be true, will Iran see these moves as a gesture of goodwill or weakness?
TABATABAI: I think it will see it as a gesture of weakness because, you know, what we're seeing is actually, again, we need to wait for the details to emerge here. But what we're seeing - the picture that is being painted, anyway, is one where the United States is giving a lot more to Iran and is receiving a lot less in return, certainly compared to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. That's the Iran nuclear deal that the Obama administration had negotiated and President Trump decided to withdraw from during his first term. So, you know, I think what Iran is seeing is that the administration is eager to move on from this war, potentially to Cuba and other issues and willing to kind of, you know, cut its losses.
RASCOE: That's Ariane Tabatabai, vice president of research for security and defense at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Thanks for speaking with us today.
TABATABAI: Thanks for having me.
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