MARY LOUISE KELLY, HOST:
It's been a little more than four months since the U.S. war with Iran began, and in that time, we have regularly led this broadcast by talking about the state of the Strait of Hormuz. Today is no different. That is because the war seems to have resumed. The strait is all but closed. The U.S. is reimposing its naval blockade. The state of the strait is something we discussed on NPR's national security podcast, Sources & Methods, with NPR national security correspondent Greg Myre and Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman.
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KELLY: Tom, you and I had a little bit of a running joke. It feels like no matter how hard we try to change the subject, talk about anything besides the Strait of Hormuz, we end up talking about the Strait of Hormuz. Here we are again. It feels a little different this time, to me, at least. How about you?
TOM BOWMAN: No. I think it is a little different. They're increasing the bombings - the U.S. bombings of the areas along the coast of the Strait of Hormuz, Bandar al-Abbas (ph). They hit this small island called Greater Tunb just last night, taking out...
KELLY: I had to pull that up on a map. I...
BOWMAN: Yeah. You and me both.
KELLY: ...Was not familiar with Greater - and there's a Lesser Tunb, as well.
BOWMAN: That's right. And it's smack dab in the middle of the Strait of Hormuz with the Lesser Tunb island, as well. So they're increasing the number of attacks. What they're trying to do is decrease the threat to shipping from, particularly, the drones. Those have been the ones attacking commercial ships, right? So that's the goal of the administration, to increase the bombing along those areas to make sure the ships can come through without a problem.
KELLY: You said that's the goal of the administration. How close is the U.S. to achieving that, to actually controlling the strait?
BOWMAN: Well, there are thousands of drones and missiles and fast boats, so it's going to be really tough to do that. Some people think you can't accomplish that. The other thing is, the strait isn't really closed, but there's, like, teens or low 20s of ships going through the strait now. So that's where we are now.
Now, President Trump said we're going to increase the bombing to the mainland of Iran next week if these guys don't come back to the table. He's talking about power plants and bridges and so forth. That raises the issue of violating international law. So that's kind of where we are. It's Groundhog Day.
KELLY: Is it Groundhog Day, though? And Greg, I'll throw this to you. I think what feels a little different to me this time is acceptance that we are settling in for the long haul. This war, which we were originally told would be a matter of weeks - like four to six weeks - we are now coming up on five months into it.
GREG MYRE: Yeah. I mean, I think this latest strategy - if you want to call it that - is really one of attrition, that the - Trump tried a major bombing campaign for about five weeks. That wasn't achieving what he'd hoped. So then there was the ceasefire and we got to this memorandum of understanding. So we saw this period of negotiations for two, two and a half months or so. And now this third stage of somewhere in between, not a full-scale bombing operation at this point, but the negotiations have more or less broken down. So it's sort of attrition.
KELLY: And the ceasefire appears to have just - what? - disintegrated?
MYRE: Kind of vanished into the hot, humid air of the Middle East.
KELLY: So let's talk about policy flip-flops on this war and about President Trump's habit of saying one thing and then doubling back and reversing himself. This week, exhibit A was tolls. The Trump administration had been saying for a while, no country could impose transit fees in this strait. Here's Marco Rubio, secretary of state, last month.
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MARCO RUBIO: No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway. That's existing international law. That's the way it is.
KELLY: That's the way it is - right up until Monday when President Trump said, never mind, not only can we have tolls, but it's going to be the U.S. imposing one, charging a 20% fee on cargo ships. That was Monday, and then by this Tuesday, he had changed his mind.
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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: So I put it out yesterday. I thought it was good. I was called by different people, different countries, kings and amirs and all of the people that we all know and we all love. And they've been - frankly, they've been very strong partners. And they said, we'd love to do it a different way.
KELLY: Greg, pick up there. We'd love to do it a different way. The president is nodding to what he says are deals that are going to make up the money that the U.S. should be getting if it were charging tolls, which it's now not going to do. Is that real?
MYRE: I mean, this sounds half-baked at best - you know, just really off-the-cuff stuff. The Rubio clip you played reflected a position that the U.S. has had since its very founding, this notion of the freedom of navigation, a principle the U.S. has always upheld and, in fact, been a world leader. And then Trump, out of the blue, talks about a 20% tariff. And then Trump, as he backtracked and - or at least changed directions, talked about big investments from these wealthy Gulf countries, which they've already done in the past. So yeah, that could happen but still doesn't solve the problem of opening the strait fully and getting back to a hundred-plus ships a day going through the strait.
KELLY: One more thread of Iran policy that has shifted. If we recall, back when this war began in February, our understanding was that a goal - a major goal was stopping Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. This week, on Tuesday, the president told Trey Yingst of Fox News, the goals of this war have been achieved.
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TREY YINGST: So your objectives are to ensure that Iran never has a nuclear weapon, to keep the strait open and to degrade the Iranian military. Can those objectives be completed in an air campaign alone? Or does this require a ground component?
TRUMP: Well, I think they're completed now, honestly. If we left right now, it would take them 20 years to rebuild what they have. The only way you can negotiate with these people is through strength, and the only strength is military strength. And that's what we've done. And, I mean, literally, two days ago, we had a deal, and then they broke it at the last moment. They broke it.
KELLY: Greg, this one to you. I'm just trying to figure out the basic question. If the objectives - U.S. objectives for this war have been completed, why are we still bombing them every day?
MYRE: Yeah. Very fair question, and I think just objectively, the objectives have not been completed. The same kind of Iranian regime remains in place, even if the faces have changed. The nuclear program still exists, although it has been set back with attacks last year and perhaps some more this year. Iran can still clearly carry out missile and drone attacks. So to claim that these objectives have been completed and the U.S. could somehow just end it today just doesn't stack with what we're seeing, hearing and getting out of Iran.
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KELLY: That was NPR's Tom Bowman and Greg Myre. We were speaking on NPR's national security podcast, Sources & Methods. You can listen to our full conversation wherever you get your podcasts. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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