SACHA PFEIFFER, HOST:
The countdown to voting day is on. Candidates from both parties will be positioning and jockeying right up until Tuesday. Democrats are putting up a fight in states and districts this year that went for President Trump in 2024 by double digits. The president isn't on the ballot, but he knows that the control of Congress will shape the direction of the last two years of his term, so he's been riling his base in places he normally wouldn't land in midterm season, including Kentucky. So Kentucky Public Radio's capitol reporter Sylvia Goodman is with us to talk about a district that hasn't been competitive in almost a decade and is now rated a toss-up. Sylvia, this is the 6th Congressional District. Give us a sense of where it is and what its voting history is like.
SYLVIA GOODMAN, BYLINE: Sure. Kentucky's 6th Congressional District is in the middle of the state, and it's our most purple district. It includes the bright-blue dot of Lexington but also includes a lot of suburbs and rural areas around it that tend to vote Republican. And in 2024, it voted for Trump by 15 points. However, just the year before, this same district voted for Democratic Governor Andy Beshear by 20 points. Democrats targeted this seat pretty early on. It's open this year, and Democrats have a chance to win in a district where Trump did so well.
PFEIFFER: So in this open seat for Congress in Kentucky, who's running?
GOODMAN: So on the right, there's Ralph Alvarado. He's Kentucky's first Hispanic state senator and he's formerly Tennessee's health commissioner. Alvarado got Trump's endorsement and ran with it during the primary. Since then, he's backed off from touting the president's support. He didn't go to Trump's northern Kentucky rally. He's backing away from tariffs. Alvarado initially supported the Iran war full-throatedly but now...
RALPH ALVARADO: The president took action swiftly. We're now months into this conflict. We've got to have some resolution.
GOODMAN: For the Democrats, there's Zach Dembo. He's a Navy veteran and former federal prosecutor. He quit under the second Trump administration - he says because of the politicization of the DOJ. He's focused on his opposition to Trump policies, like the war tariffs and Medicaid cuts but also corruption.
ZACH DEMBO: We're going to win this, but there are worse things than losing a campaign, like losing your integrity and going in bought and sold.
GOODMAN: Like I said, the race has shifted around quite a bit. Both candidates seem to agree at this point - it's going to be a close one. Early voting has already started. Today is actually the last day of three here in Kentucky.
PFEIFFER: Sylvia, I assume you've been out talking with voters. Give us a sense of what they're telling you.
GOODMAN: Sure. I followed the campaign trails for Alvarado and Dembo last weekend. And the first thing in the morning, I went to this packed rally for Republicans in Lexington. There were, you know, candidates and volunteers mingling together. Some kind of scoffed at the idea of an enthusiasm gap for Republicans. Harry Van Epps (ph) told me that anyone who does their homework would vote for Alvarado in this race.
HARRY VAN EPPS: You can't have open borders. You can't have Medicare for everyone. You know, it's called personal responsibility.
GOODMAN: At a canvassing kickoff for Dembo later that day, Democrat Bobby McDowell (ph) from Scott County told me Dembo's really excited him.
BOBBY MCDOWELL: And he's, you know, a former federal prosecutor, Navy JAG. He's got all the credentials. We haven't had a candidate like this in years.
GOODMAN: Polls close in this district at 6 p.m. Eastern time on Tuesday, and it might be one of the first toss-ups in the country to get called on election night.
PFEIFFER: Sylvia, this situation you're describing of seats that we wouldn't have thought would be competitive suddenly seeming competitive is not unique. And we've seen Democrats devoting a lot of resources and energy to these districts usually considered deep red. As we look at this district, what does it help us understand about whether the strategy is paying off for Democrats?
GOODMAN: You know, Democrats have expanded the map quite a bit with competitive races in South Carolina, Iowa, Montana, Texas. Trump's approval rating is underwater. Kentucky has recorded the largest decline, actually, since January last year, falling 34 points to a negative 11 point net approval rating - that's per Civiqs polling. And Democrats are picking up on that frustration, and they're running with it. They're favored to flip the U.S. House of Representatives, and the Senate is in play this year too.
PFEIFFER: That is Kentucky Public Radio's capitol reporter Sylvia Goodman. Thank you.
GOODMAN: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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