AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
North Carolina is expected to have one of the most competitive U.S. Senate races next year. The state's political landscape shifted further when two-term Republican Senator Thom Tillis announced he won't seek reelection. That leaves the race with no clear front-runners in either party with eight months to go before the primary. I'm joined by Colin Campbell, Capitol bureau chief for member station WUNC, to hear more about this seat. Hi, Colin.
COLIN CAMPBELL, BYLINE: Hey, Ayesha.
RASCOE: So first, remind us why Tillis dropped out.
CAMPBELL: Yeah. So this happened pretty suddenly last month, when the Senate was debating President Trump's megabill. Tillis said the proposed changes to Medicaid would make it impossible for him to vote yes. He was particularly concerned that the bill was going to end Medicaid expansion in North Carolina, effectively kicking more than 600,000 people off the health care program who've really only joined in the past two years. So within hours of that, Tillis' comments provoked a pretty serious backlash from President Trump. He threatened on social media to endorse a primary challenger, and then the following day, we got the announcement from Tillis that he won't be running again.
RASCOE: Have any big-name Republicans in North Carolina launched Senate campaigns since Tillis dropped out?
CAMPBELL: So far, no one has formally declared their candidacy, but plenty of Republicans have been saying they're considering a run. It's something of a waiting game because most everyone in the GOP thinks their nominee will be whoever Trump endorses in the end. And then the most obvious person for the president to endorse would be his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump. She co-chaired the Republican National Committee until pretty recently, and she told Fox News she's considering a Senate run here. She grew up in the Wilmington area and still has family there, but ultimately, she'd have to move back to the state if she jumps in the race. I think Democrats would probably make that an issue if she runs, but moving states to run for the Senate isn't exactly unheard of. Elizabeth Dole moved back to North Carolina after decades away, and she got elected back in 2002.
RASCOE: Yeah. Who are the other Republicans considering a Senate run?
CAMPBELL: Another name that keeps coming up is Michael Whatley, the chair of the Republican National Committee. He actually led the North Carolina GOP before Trump elevated him to the national role. And several of North Carolina's Congressmen - Republicans - have said that they're going to be interested in this race.
RASCOE: And what about the Democratic side?
CAMPBELL: It's pretty empty for the moment. Former Congressman Wiley Nickel has so far been the only declared candidate for months now, and that's because everyone is waiting to see if former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper jumps in the race. His team says he'll make a decision soon. And since he won the state by a pretty big margin in 2020, even as Trump won North Carolina, Democrats pretty much think he's their best shot at flipping this seat, which would be for the first time since 2008.
RASCOE: What do you see as some of the top issues driving this race?
CAMPBELL: I think you'll see Democrats put health care issues front and center. If the changes to Medicaid, as we were mentioning in the debate from the megabill, result in people losing their health care coverage here, the Democratic candidate is going to tie their opponent to this megabill. It's pretty much easy enough to do if the GOP candidate ends up being a member of Congress who voted for the bill or if it's someone close to Trump. And then on the Republican side, immigration, I think, could be a big focus. North Carolina isn't particularly close to the border, but that was a winning issue for the GOP here in the last election.
RASCOE: How does North Carolina and the Senate race fit into the bigger picture of next year's midterms?
CAMPBELL: There are only a few competitive Senate races on the ballot in 2026 all across the country, and this is one of them. Democrats will have an uphill battle winning control of the Senate, and if they don't win in North Carolina, it's next to impossible for them to flip enough seats to get that majority. North Carolina is considered a swing state. You know, we often elect Democrats for governor at the same time that the state goes red in presidential elections. But Republicans have won every Senate race here since 2008, and Trump has won the state three times. So even without an incumbent senator like Tillis, it's going to be a pretty tough race for the Democrats.
RASCOE: Colin Campbell covers North Carolina politics for member station WUNC. Thank you for joining me.
CAMPBELL: Thanks, Ayesha. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
