Myanmar's Min Aung Hlaing is abroad on his first trip as president with a trip to neighboring India. India's foreign ministry said in a statement the visit will last from Saturday to Wednesday.
The former leader of Myanmar's military will hold talks with India Prime Minister Narendra Modi and with Indian business leaders. He's also expected to meet with India President Droupadi Murmu. It's Min Aung Hlaing's first international trip since being sworn in as Myanmar's new president in April, in elections that have been dismissed by Western governments and rights groups as a sham.
In 2021, as chief of Myanmar's armed forces–known as the Tatmadaw–Min Aung Hlaing deposed the elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi, sparking a brutal five year long civil war that shows no sign of ending. Despite the violence, the military went ahead with the election anyway, one in which millions were disenfranchised because of the war, while Aung San Suu Kyi's party was barred from competing.
Before the president's trip began, New Delhi said in a statement that the visit "is expected to further strengthen and deepen the multi-faceted relations between the two countries."
Most analysts had expected Min Aung Hlaing's first trip to be to neighboring China, the Myanmar military's biggest booster, which also supported the general election. But that trip didn't happen, perhaps owing to Xi Jinping's focus on high profile state visits from both President Trump and Russia's Vladimir Putin. Also, says Myanmar analyst Min Zaw Oo, "both sides needed to make more preparation about the agenda to be discussed."
Morgan Michaels, a Myanmar analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Singapore, isn't surprised that the Indian visit is happening first.
"India has more or less maintained its relationship with Naypyidaw [Myanmar's capital] since the coup, having assessed that the Tatmadaw was here to stay. It sent its minister of external affairs to the swearing in ceremony for Min Aung Hlaing in April, suggesting that New Delhi is keen to move forward with the new regime." He also notes that China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Myanmar just last month.
There are a number of issues India and Myanmar have to discuss. Chiefly, their shared security concerns along their 1,000 kilometer (621 mile) long porous border. Myanmar is worried about resistance to military rule, India is concerned with insurgent groups in its northeast. Drug and arms smuggling—as well as human trafficking—will also likely be on the agenda. New Delhi is also keen on gaining access to some of Myanmar's extensive rare earths deposits—though China, which controls much of the rare earths supply chain in the area, is unlikely to agree.
All this comes as Myanmar's military is now on the offensive after suffering two years of brutal losses to opposition forces. Analysts say Myanmar's military has been aided by new tactics and new drone capabilities, including technology and components from Russia and, to some extent, China.
"The military is beginning to mount a comeback on the battlefield and now just beginning to mount thrusts deep into opposition strongholds," says Morgan Michaels of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. "So, we've seen a complete shift, a reversal in the trajectory of the conflict. Now it is the one who has the initiative and it's the opposition forces that are in serious trouble and in some cases even beginning to collapse."
The military-backed regime is keen on consolidating its position abroad–even though it is less responsive to interview requests from western journalists.
"They will also be focused right now on diplomatic consolidation. That is, getting back to a normal relationship with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations [ASEAN], from which they've been kind of suspended," says Richard Horsey of the International Crisis Group. "They'll be looking to reverse that and normalize their relationship. And I think they'll be looking to get back Myanmar's seat at the United Nations in New York which is still, at the moment, being occupied by the previous ambassador appointed by Aung San Suu Kyi."
And ASEAN's resolve could be showing signs of weakening–with the group—at Thailand's urging—recently agreeing to a virtual meeting with neighboring Myanmar's new foreign minister, Tin Maung Swe, which some rights groups see as the beginning of a slippery slope.
They, some in ASEAN and Western governments fear that such developments, along with the India visit, could help legitimize Myanmar's new, military installed government even as it continues to wage its brutal war against its own citizens that's claimed the lives of tens of thousands of combatants and civilians, while the world has been largely distracted.
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